Epidemiology

So I whippped out my epi text this evening since all the fuss about "swine flu" gave me a good excuse to remind myself how all that stuff works. I was going to make a lengthy post (and if the news keeps being stupid I still will) on the entire topic, but there isn't really any point. Epidemiology is a fascinating subject but the more I read, the more I realize that while the governments response is appropriate, the news's response (and coverage) is not.

Consider these few facts:

1) We've had a couple of handfuls of this flu in the US (and I've spoken with a couple of folks who think they may have had it). Only one case has resulted in hospitilization. No fatalities in the US.

2) Mexico's healthcare system is decades behind ours.

3) This variant of the H1N1 virus responds to at least some of our vaccines.

4) Yearly, regardless of strain, the US has something like 36,000 hospitilizations from the flu.

It's the flu folks. It's strange in that it is striking in the spring-summer season. Cytokine storms are possible (I presume) and they do suck. It does seem to target the 20-40 year old demographic like the 1918 pandemic. But it's no pandemic maker. Calm down, have some chicken soup. Stay home from work if you think you need to. If you're elderly go to the hospital.

There are more frightening things happening out there (like global cooling).

*Edited to provide fun 1918 pandemic linkification:

http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/eid/vol12no01/05-0979.htm

Work in progress

To all those who read the blog (yeah, all four of you),

I'm researching my next major post. The topic will be Human Factors in space flight. I intend to write it as if it is the missing chapter to Doc Travis's Introduction to Rocket Science and Engineering. Should be a good one. Look for it soon.